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Will the Fed Stop Buying Mortgage Debt?

By: Curtis Ophoven

3/17/2010 - 1 Comments

The Fed's $1.25 trillion quantitative easing program has kept the U.S. housing market from totally imploding is supposed to end at the end of the month.

But I’m not sure it will.

The U.S. housing market is teetering on collapse even with this massive program, how will it function without it?

If the Fed does not continue to purchase mortgages, then the mortgage market will need to rely on the private market – which is virtually non-existent at this point. 

Interest rates would have to spike to draw in private investors to purchase mortgages.

A spike in mortgage rates would exacerbate the banking industry and expose its already hidden insolvent position.  Thousands of banks for go bankrupt and millions more homeowners would find themselves underwater as home prices drop.

This is likely to cause a serious collapse of the U.S. housing market.

At the same time, the Fed desperately needs to clear its book of these bad mortgage loans.  They not only need to stop purchasing mortages, they need to moving them off its balance sheet to give them more room for quantitative easing of the trillions in U.S. deficits that cannot be funded by foreign creditors anymore - as foreign central banks continue selling U.S. Bonds.  

Perhaps the only answer, other than to let the housing market crash, is to print the difference.  The Fed is likely considering create trillions of new money to purchase Treasury bills and mortgages to keep the system from a crash.  This will be the third round of major inflation.

In the short run the system may not crash, but the long term effects are going to be devastating for the value of the dollar and the entire U.S. economy.

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Reader Comments

Comment 1
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The Revolution: A Manifesto

Dr. Ron Paul's THE REVOLUTION: A MANIFESTO is a concise and convincing argument for a return to America's libertarian principles. But the best and most important chapter, without a doubt, is Chapter 6, "Money: The Forbidden Issue in American Politics." Here Dr. Paul details the operations of the Federal Reserve System in stunning clarity. You see, the effects of inflation are not uniform -- the Fed System works as a wealth redistribution system from poor and middle-class to the rich and politically connected. This is the true cause of the increase in inequality and the diminishing middle class.

Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse

In discussions of today's economic meltdown and what to do about it, the Federal Reserve is a stealth helicopter: it never shows up on the radar. With the exception of a few esoteric specialists and those Ron Paul Revolutionaries who burst into chants of "Abolish the Fed!" Historian Thomas Woods notes in this important book, the Federal Reserve bears a large part of the blame for the mess we're in. In the first part of "Meltdown," Woods shows how both in theory and in practice, Fed policy fueled an artificial boom and is now leading us to a much larger meltdown.

How Capitalism Saved America

This book is an excellent presentation on the problems of government 'regulations' into free market mechanisms. This book illustrates simply and clearly how many chaotic economic problems were caused by interference from government regulations and how capitalism has overcome them. Master this book and you have overcome most of the bad economic thinking of our time. Government is the cause of capitalism failure.

The Case Against the Fed

This book, written by Murray Rothbard, an economist and historian of fairly well known repute, is a scathing attack on not only the Federal Reserve, but the interests that created this institution. Rothbard explains how the Federal Reserve is the true source in the destruction of wealth, which has led to the destruction of the middle class and continues to sift money into the hands of the wealthiest.